tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7279035.post2455586684871677829..comments2022-04-13T09:08:07.220+03:00Comments on Biur Chametz: Before you vote: Why not to trust the pollsZman Biurhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05593492318098902028noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7279035.post-46924151603818054262006-03-28T06:13:00.000+02:002006-03-28T06:13:00.000+02:00Three years ago how many seats went to parties tha...Three years ago how many seats went to parties that were of the Nationalist/Religious right. 70? Has the makeup of the electorate changed that significantly in 3 years? Olmert has effectively made Kadima a party of the Left, not the Center.<br>That's why I question the poll results. And I'm encouraged by Kadima's recent slippage. (Your caveat about slippage duly noted.)<br>At least my cynicism about Sharon's death apparently didn't come to be.Soccer Dadhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16142724823098073038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7279035.post-6780944094724696182006-03-28T09:30:00.000+02:002006-03-28T09:30:00.000+02:00David,No, the makeup of the electorate hasn't ...David,<br><br>No, the makeup of the electorate hasn't changed that much. But the parties and the issues have.<br><br>Many of Likud's supporters in '03 voted Likud in order to elect Sharon. They were never true Likudniks to begin with. Many of them have switched to Kadima, whether because they still see it as Sharon's party, or because they view it as centrist, mainstream and responsible.<br><br>Note that in order to win a big "landslide" in Israel you currently only need to win less than a third of the votes. I see that as a serious flaw in the system.Zman Biurhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05593492318098902028noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7279035.post-56833540595491545782006-03-28T11:01:00.000+02:002006-03-28T11:01:00.000+02:00ZB: My only problem with your posting is that I ca...ZB: My only problem with your posting is that I can't vote for the party the closest represents my actual views.<br><br>I'm sacrificing my personal idealogy for the sake of a (hopefully) right wing coalition by voting for the party most likely to be called to form it.<br><br>Good Luck to us all!Jameel @ The Muqatahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15890095633246557332noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7279035.post-18919293870656908882006-03-28T17:11:00.000+02:002006-03-28T17:11:00.000+02:00Well, I didn't exactly say "the party you...Well, I didn't exactly say "the party you're in closest agreement with" - I said "the party you most wish to see represented in the Knesset". That's why I voted Likud, even though I'm closer ideologically to NU/NRP.Zman Biurhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05593492318098902028noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7279035.post-74191413474376516832006-03-29T20:39:00.000+02:002006-03-29T20:39:00.000+02:00Well, even though you don't agree with it than...Well, even though you don't agree with it thanks for voting Likud despite their crash. Otherwise it would be worse for Bibi's economy.<br><br>but this is the thing about giving up land. Every party will do it. Yisrael Beitenu said they will. Likud would. NU-NRP would. The ultra-right wing parties would have no chance. It's not feasible today. To make it feasible you need to convince the public and the int'l community (but more the public) and then you need to answer the questions:<br>1. What do you do with teh Palestinians living in Yesha (and no, transfer isn't an option)<br>2. You can't deny the demographic threat. One of the biggest failures of the anti-disengagement folks was that they didn't make arguments that would be convincing to the Israeli public but rather were all homogeneous talking to their own crowd. They can't do it if they want legitimacy or any of their agenda!<br>Not related to the disengagement, but this is one of Bibi's faults with the economy. He can say "I saved the economy" all he wants but that's not what people see. So he needed to really explain to the public why he did what he did and why that's good for Israel and why that will be good for their pocketbooks if he gives them time. (Albeit Bibi's not the most trustworthy in the public eye so it may not have helped)Avinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7279035.post-36975178051860667202006-03-30T08:27:00.000+02:002006-03-30T08:27:00.000+02:00Am,First, I don't agree that "every party...Am,<br><br>First, I don't agree that "every party" will give up land. Not unilaterally, with nothing in return.<br><br>For decades, the left said "land for peace" and the right said "not one inch". Now the <b>mainstream</b> is saying "land for nothing"? And you think the right should say, "Okay, go ahead"?<br><br><br><b>NU-NRP would.</b><br><br>I doubt this. And Shas is on the record as opposing unilateral moves.<br><br><br><b>The ultra-right wing parties would have no chance.</b><br><br>They said this once about the ultra-left parties...<br><br>Regarding your questions, you apparently haven't read my earlier postings on the subject!<br><br><br><b>1. What do you do with teh Palestinians living in Yesha</b><br><br>Why do you have to do anything with them? They have a government and a parliament. When they're ready to deal with Israel responsibly and maturely, we can talk. Until then, the game is containment of terror.<br><br><br><b>2. You can't deny the demographic threat.</b><br><br>Sure I can. What is it exactly? That they'll get a majority of the Knesset? That they'll swarm into my kitchen? How does their population growth threaten Israel?<br><br>And if it did, we've already given them Gaza, which was supposedly going to solve the demographic threat. Now you're saying it's still here? So what did we accomplish by disengagement?<br><br><br>One of the biggest failures of the Israeli public is it is always willing to believe the politician who comes with the "next big idea", whether it makes sense or not, as long as it promises to bring them peace and security.<br><br>There are no solutions. Unilateral moves cannot bring Israel security, or solve our long-term problems. When all is said and done, the big picture won't have changed, except that we will have been stripped of our national heritage, of our negotiating assets, and of our deterrence credibility.<br><br>Sounds good to me!Zman Biurhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05593492318098902028noreply@blogger.com