Tuesday, October 26, 2004

With a ten-foot poll

No matter how much of a political junkie you are, it's time to stop paying attention to the presidential polls. The national polls are too close, and too inconsistent (largely due to differences in methodology) to mean much. All that matters now is how the key states fall - and the state polls are just as scattered. If you can't take the suspense, nap for a week and wake up on Election Day.

Meanwhile, let me just pick up on a couple of intriguing recent numbers:

1. Breaking for Bush: Bush supporters can take heart from a Rasmussen survey, according to which late-deciding voters are preferring Bush, with those who made up their minds in the last month preferring Bush 57%-38%. Did someone say Kerry won the debates?

2. Hawaiian punch: Two recent polls show a dead heat in Democratic safe state Hawaii, of all places. No one had even really bothered polling Hawaii before. What gives?

Michael Barone analyzes Hawaiian politics in an attempt to understand what's up. He notes that, among other poll findings, "Filipino-Americans favored Bush by a 56 to 36 percent margin." I suspect the swinging of this traditionally Democratic constituency is a direct result of the war on terror. The Philippines have their own internal war with Muslim terrorists, and Bush has sent U.S. troops to help hunt them down.

Beyond that: Maybe 9/11 just reminds some Hawaiians of Pearl Harbor?

3. I said don't touch those polls!

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